Why the “risk ratios” that supposedly prove vaccines offer 90 percent protection against deaths from Covid are a lie

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Alex Berenson

Jan 21

Kudos to the state of Massachusetts for being more honest about Covid vaccine failure than most blue states – or the Centers for Disease Control, which rolled out more nonsense numbers about vaccine effectiveness today.

Unlike most states, Massachusetts provides raw numbers for infections in vaccinated people, instead of hiding them and offering only “adjusted rate ratios” that claim to compare infection risks in the vaccinated and unvaccinated.

On Thursday, Massachusetts reported 85,000 infections, 900 hospitalizations and 170 deaths in vaccinated people for the week ended Jan. 15 – almost half of all Covid deaths over that period.

Even more importantly, Massachusetts also acknowledged those figures underestimate the real totals in the vaccinated because its reporting systems miscount some of them as unvaccinated.

As the report explains:

The number of cases in vaccinated people may be undercounted due to discrepancies in the names and dates of birth of individuals, resulting in an inability to match records across systems. Hospitalization data is likely also undercounted as identification and reporting of hospitalized cases relies on that information being obtainable by case investigators through patient interview.

Massachusetts’s admission helps explain why the United States reports relatively fewer deaths and hospitalizations in Covid-vaccinated people than other highly vaccinated countries with more complete immunization registries and national health care systems.

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In its weekly reports, the United Kingdom has said as many as 80 percent of its Covid deaths are in vaccinated people. In the last several days, New South Wales, the most populous state in Australia, has reported over 70 percent of its surging Covid deaths in the vaccinated.

UK SOURCE: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1049160/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-3-2022.pdf

(See slide 37)

AUSTRALIA SOURCE: https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20220121_00.aspx

In contrast, the governor of New Jersey said yesterday that his state had only four deaths of vaccinated people in the last month, out of a total of 600 Covid deaths. That statement is only possible if human biology is radically different in New Jersey than everywhere else in the world. (Insert joke here.)

The American data that purport to show the effectiveness of the mRNA vaccines are wrong in three ways.

First, hospitals and states fail to count infected people as vaccinated because they do not properly match cases with registries, and the Centers for Disease Control bases many of its analyses on state-level data.

Second, people who are infected after their first dose, or less than 14 days after the second, are counted as “unvaccinated.” Other countries generally report them as “partially vaccinated.”

In fact, every person who receives even a single dose of any vaccine should be counted as vaccinated from the day they receive the first dose. Vaccine protection lasts a few months. Excluding infections and deaths in the first six weeks after vaccinations begin is nonsensical – especially since researchers now have strong evidence that infections INCREASE for weeks after the first dose.

Third – and this is the most important and least understood facet of the data manipulation – public health authorities often focus on the supposed “risk reduction” that vaccinations offer in various age ranges.

For example, in the United Kingdom, five times as many vaccinated people over 80 are dying of Covid as unvaccinated. Yet the British government insists that the vaccines lower the risk of death by almost 90 percent in people who have had two shots and a booster.

The reason is that the British government is comparing the relatively large population of people over 80 who have been boosted with the tiny group that has been unvaccinated. But the two groups are not comparable. Many people over 80 who have not been vaccinated are simply too frail to tolerate even a single Covid vaccine. Some of the people who have not been boosted are not receiving a third dose because they had severe side effects after the second.

In fact, hospice providers acknowledge that some end-of-life patients may simply not want to be vaccinated, as they may no longer may be trying to extend their lives as long as possible.

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Thus the vaccinated and unvaccinated elderly populations cannot be easily compared. Randomized clinical trials are supposed to account for these differences. But Pfizer and Moderna enrolled almost no one over 80 in their trials, even though people in that age range account for most Covid deaths in most Western countries (I know, I’ve made this point before, two or three hundred times).

Thus the raw numbers matter far more than the ratios governments provide. And the raw numbers of Covid deaths from the United Kingdom show clearly that since July, it has faced a steady wave of Covid deaths. July is crucial, because July marks roughly five months after nearly every elderly person in Britain received two vaccine doses. It is the end of the happy vaccine valley, that short period when the vaccines work as promised.

And now, with Omicron, British deaths are rising notably – even though Britain is one of the world’s most vaccinated countries. More than 90 percent of British adults are vaccinated, and most are boosted. (By the way, that huge middle spike came as Britain was vaccinating the elderly, and post-first-dose infections are partly responsible for it.)

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The health authorities can play with rate ratios all they like. Politicians in the United States and Europe can blame the unvaccinated. But the chart below would be impossible in a country as highly vaccinated as Britain if the vaccines were nearly as effective against Covid deaths as public health authorities, the media, and governments pretend.


Content retrieved from: https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/why-the-risk-ratios-that-supposedly/comments.

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