MMWR appears to no longer be in the science business
The CDC did the same study in 2020, and found a near-perfect lack of correlation, and they buried the results in a table they ignored in the actual text of this MMWR:https://t.co/S6h8Ho8dtT
I wonder how many times they've done it since then before getting the result they wanted? https://t.co/6JKqCfZsyw pic.twitter.com/DcRh2gXY4i
— Wes Pegden (@WesPegden) February 4, 2022
- The study only examined people who had spent time in a public space AND did not have a known sars-cov-2 contact. But the analysis could have altered either of these rules. How many other analyses could the authors have attempted? The potential for multiple analytic plans is possible. Moreover, the authors may have worsen confounding with their design. The types of people tested for a company who did not have known contacts might further select for the most risk averse/ cautious types. The types of people sick, but no one they know was sick, might further select for individuals in communities less concerned with COVID19, or reluctant to tell others about a + diagnosis.
The White House is asking Spotify to censure Joe Rogan. Joe Rogan should ask the CDC to censure MMWR. The truth is the CDC has put out so many papers that borderline propaganda, that they create the space for people to seek alternative information. They have lost trust.
But I am more disappointed in smart scientists who share this essay. They are losing their credibility. I am sad to see it.
Ultimately, the CDC & NIH failed us. The agencies should have run a half dozen masking cluster RCTs under different conditions, and for different ages. We were starving, and we needed this loaf of bread. Instead, the CDC published flawed study after flawed study. It didn’t even give us crumbs; it gave us a fistful of sand. Starving, we swallowed each grain, and begged for more. Medical leaders told us to fill our bowl before it runs out. Science lies on its deathbed.
A wise person pointed out 2 more things to me.
8. the exclusion that if you encountered someone with sars-cov-2 you get pushed out of this dataset. This person writes, “Wouldn’t it make more sense to have this type of study after a positive contact..” It is a good point. Why are we making that exclusion? Masks work but not if you met someone who FOR SURE had covid? Seems a very odd analytic choice.
9. The difference in rates of vaccination are massive; yes the authors adjust for this, but it clearly reveals the drastically different sorts of people who are here. Moreover, some people are getting 1 of J&J and others 3 of mRNA, yet they don’t adjust for this. The group with negative tests may have been pumped with more vax, and residual vax effect might be being detected. Finally, do people who get vax behave the same as people who don’t. I doubt it. In short, the study is not doing well.